News Summary
According to the Spring Economic Forecast by economists from California State University, Fullerton, Orange County is facing slower job growth and rising unemployment. The forecast predicts an increase in unemployment rates from 3.9% in 2024 to 4.7% by 2025-2026, exacerbated by ongoing U.S. tariffs on imports. Business confidence is declining, and inflation concerns prevail. The economic outlook emphasizes the critical influence of tariffs on local trade and job growth, along with stagnation in labor force growth. Despite these challenges, a recession is not anticipated in the near future.
Orange County is set to experience slower job growth and rising unemployment levels, according to the latest Spring Economic Forecast released by economists Anil Puri and Mira Farka from California State University, Fullerton. The report highlights ongoing economic challenges primarily linked to persistent U.S. tariffs on imports that began during the Trump administration, which are expected to continue under the current administration.
Forecasts suggest that the unemployment rate in Orange County is projected to increase from 3.9% in 2024 to 4.7% by 2025 and 2026. The situation could worsen, potentially exceeding 5.3% by late 2025 and early 2026. Simultaneously, the local economy is anticipated to grow at a modest rate, estimating 1.4% growth for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026. This follows a contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, as reported by the U.S. Commerce Department.
Key factors influencing these economic outlooks include the ramifications of tariffs, which have negatively impacted import volumes and business sentiments among local enterprise leaders. A recent survey indicated a significant drop in business leaders’ confidence levels, plunging from 85.9 to 52.2, the lowest recorded since the early days of the pandemic. Approximately 20% of surveyed business leaders named inflation as their primary concern, followed closely by geopolitical risks and the implications of rising interest rates and government deficits.
The economists expressed that, despite a complicated economic landscape, the likelihood of a U.S. recession remains low. They predict the national economy will avoid recessionary conditions while managing an environment with slow growth and rising inflation rates. The anticipated average tariff rate of 16.2% on imports is forecasted to remain stable, further influencing import activities in the region.
Local businesses are already feeling the pressure of these tariffs, particularly within industries reliant on imports. For instance, the motorcycle dealership Ducati Newport Beach has expressed concern over escalating prices passed onto consumers due to higher import costs. This reflects broader worries throughout Southern California’s trade and logistics industry, which is valued at nearly $300 billion and is at risk due to ongoing trade tensions.
Moreover, the housing market in Orange County exhibits rising costs, with the median price of a single-family home surging from $861,000 in April 2020 to $1.47 million by February 2025. Experts suggest little change in housing prices is expected unless a recession occurs, which is currently not projected according to the latest economic analysis.
Additional insights from the forecast indicated stagnation in labor force growth in both Orange and Los Angeles Counties. Labor force participation rates remain below pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the continued challenges in workforce recovery. The economic outlook remains influenced by several factors, particularly geopolitical tensions and the direct impact of tariffs on trade relations with key partners, including China.
Former California governor Gray Davis commented on the damaging effects of tariffs on local economies, comparing them to dismantling a successful sports team. Experts also express concern that ongoing trade complexities may lead to international businesses reconsidering their investment strategies in Southern California, which could profoundly impact local job growth and economic stability.
The report underscores that while some tariff measures have been eased, uncertainty in international trade policies continues to loom over economic growth in the region. Economists assert that addressing these challenges is critical for Orange County’s economic recovery and sustainability in the years ahead.
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Additional Resources
- ABC7 News
- Wikipedia: Tariffs
- Los Angeles Times
- Google Search: impact of tariffs on business
- Orange County Register
- Google Scholar: tariff impact on economy
- Mid Hudson News
- Encyclopedia Britannica: trade tariffs
- Los Angeles Times
- Google News: California economy 2025
